State’s trajectory could be lower due to less smokers and early social distancing
Gov. Charlie Baker anÂnounced good and bad news on Thursday requirÂing the anticipated surge of COVID-19 cases in the coming 20 days – with the good news being there are ample Acute beds and the state’s death rate from COVID-19 is lower than other states, and the bad news being that even with an expansion of ICU beds at existing hospitals the state will likely be short up to 500 beds.
State officials, in reÂsponse, are looking to build Field Hospitals to take the stress off of medical centers – including hiring a conÂtractor that can quickly beÂgin to build out places like the South Boston ConvenÂtion Center if need be. The plan to build up to 1,000 beds in this fashion around the state.
Gov. Baker’s COVID-19 Response Command CenÂter today (April 2) outÂlined projections related to the anticipated surge of COVID-19 cases in the Commonwealth, which they believe will come beÂtween April 10-20.
The projections are the result of the Command Center’s work with medical experts to complete modelÂing of the outbreak in MasÂsachusetts. The AdministraÂtion also detailed its efforts to respond to this surge, including a significant inÂcrease in hospital capacity, staffing, and equipment.
COVID-19 Surge PlanÂning:
•Modeling and ProjecÂtions:
The Administration’s COVID-19 Response Command Center has been working with its Advisory Board of medical experts and epidemiologists from HarÂvard University, University of Guelph and Northeastern University to refine modÂels related to the expected surge of COVID-19 casÂes. These efforts include modeling the surge’s timÂing, number of cases, necÂessary bed capacity, and work to find facilities that will meet overfill capacity. The model’s projections are based on the experiÂence of Wuhan, China, but Massachusetts’ trajectory could differ due to lower population density, lower smoking rates, and earlier social distancing measures. The Command Center has also been comparing to exÂperience in other states and around the world.
The model’s latest proÂjections estimate that the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in MassaÂchusetts could range from 47,000 to 172,000 (or 0.7% to 2.5% of the total popuÂlation of Massachusetts). The models show hospitalÂizations would potentially peak between April 10-20. The current fatality rate in Massachusetts is lower than other areas – it is approxiÂmately 1.5 percent of those infected. The Command Center is monitoring this statistic closely.
The COVID-19 ReÂsponse Command Center is working with hospitals to provide them with flexibilÂity to expand ICU capaciÂty. The Commonwealth is asking academic medical centers and teaching hospiÂtals to work to significantly expand their ICU capacity. But after hospitals execute on their surge plans, the model estimates there could be a remaining gap in ICU capacity of more than 500 beds.
•Response Efforts:
In response, the AdminÂistration is aiming to find or build an additional 750 – 1,000 beds in field medÂical hospitals and other alÂternate care sites to reduce strain on hospitals as much as possible. Gov. Baker and Lt. Gov. Polito visited the first of these Field Medical Stations at the DCU Center yesterday.
The Administration has identified additional posÂsible sites for Field MediÂcal Stations including the Boston Convention & ExÂhibition Center, Joint Base Cape Cod, Springfield’s Mass Mutual Building and other smaller locations. The Administration has secured a contractor who can build out sites once a healthcare partner has been finalized.